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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to electrify the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position & Closed Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite polling evidence suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the boiling pot of British politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact has been made much harder as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document & Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo of 2018

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to keep open the possibility of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk and A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the impact that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.